Ask Jonny 5

Is your fuel surcharge set right?

Your fuel surcharge was set based on what diesel cost when you negotiated it. If diesel has moved since then — and it has — the math may no longer work in your favor. Select your region, enter your details, and Jonny 5 shows exactly how much you are covering or absorbing per week.

💡

This week: West Coast diesel is $0.94/gal more than Rocky Mountain. A 10-truck fleet running 2,500 miles/week pays $3,133 more per week on the West Coast. Select your region below to see your actual numbers.

NEUTRAL Diesel Forecast vs Current — Week of July 20 2026

Current Diesel (National)$5.134/gal

Your RegionSelect below

13-Week Forecast$4.960/gal

Disruption Scenario$5.125/gal

Surcharge Gap Calculator

Select your region — calculations use your actual regional diesel price.

Your Region

Weekly Miles Per Truck

Average MPG

Number of Trucks

Current Surcharge ($/mile)

Gallons/Week—

Surcharge Revenue/Week—

Fuel Cost/Week (Your Region)—

Weekly Gap—

What will fuel cost on jobs you are bidding today?

Select your region. Enter your job details. See your actual fuel cost under three scenarios before you commit.

💡

This week: West Coast diesel is $1.50/gal more than Gulf Coast. If you are bidding cross-country jobs, the fuel cost on the return leg may be dramatically different from the outbound leg.

Forward Bid Calculator

Your Region

Total Job Miles

Number of Trucks

Average MPG

Your Bid Rate ($/mile)

Operating Cost ex-Fuel ($/mile)

Conservative

$4.861/gal

—

Base Forecast

$4.960/gal

—

Supply Disruption

$5.125/gal

—

What should you lock in with suppliers this week?

Food cost inflation does not announce itself. It builds upstream — in energy prices, freight costs, and manufacturing inputs — weeks before it hits your supplier invoices.

GPPI: 0.31 MODERATE PRESSURE

Review supplier contracts within 30 days. Moderate upstream pressure building.

Category Pressure — What to Do This Week

Category	YoY Change	Signal	Action
Cereals & Bakery	2.6%	Moderate	Review soon
Meat, Poultry & Fish	1.8%	Low	Monitor
Dairy	6.1%	High	Lock in now
Fruits & Vegetables	5.1%	High	Lock in now

Margin Impact Calculator — By Food Segment

Enter your weekly spend by category. Each segment uses its actual upstream pressure signal from the GPPI. Total margin impact reflects your specific product mix.

Proteins — ($/week)
Moderate pressure

Dairy — ($/week)
High pressure

Produce — ($/week)
High pressure

Dry Goods — ($/week)
Moderate pressure

Total Weekly Food Cost$4,000

Projected Cost Increase--

Highest Risk Category--

Annual Margin Impact--

Proteins Impact/yr--

Dairy Impact/yr--

Produce Impact/yr--

Dry Goods Impact/yr--

Your cash is sitting on a shelf.

For most e-commerce operators the money isn't gone — it's tied up in inventory. Order too much and it's dead cash. Order too little and a stockout hands the sale to a competitor. The question is never "am I profitable" — it's "how much do I order, and when."

Inventory Risk Calculator

Current Inventory (units)

Average Weekly Sales (units)

Supplier Lead Time (weeks)

Revenue Per Unit ($)

Weeks of Supply—

Reorder Point—

Recommended Order—

Revenue at Risk—

The number above assumes your sales stay flat. They won't.

Your reorder point runs on last month's sales. But demand moves with the macro economy — weeks before it shows up in your numbers.

Real income -0.1% YoY
Diesel +34.7% YoY
Margin Squeezeconsumer purchasing power falling while transportation costs rise. See chart for details.

Real Disposable Income vs. Diesel Cost — 2018 to Present

See What This Looks Like on Real SKU Data

The calculator above is a starting point. A full inventory buying plan runs macro-adjusted demand forecasts at the SKU level — reorder points that move with the signal, not against it.

View Example → Jonny5 Inventory Forecast

Live example: 5-SKU demand forecast, macro signal overlay, reorder flags, and capital summary. Built on the same methodology used here.

Weekly Food &
Fuel Report

The signals your costs follow — before you feel them

Crude oil moves first. Diesel follows within 1-2 weeks. Freight costs adjust within 2-4 weeks. Your supplier invoices reflect it 4-8 weeks later. These are the live readings — updated weekly.

💡

This week: West Coast diesel ($5.877/gal) vs Rocky Mountain ($4.935/gal) = $0.94/gal spread. A 10-truck fleet running 2,500 miles/week pays $3,133 more per week on the West Coast. That is $162,916/year.

What to watch this week — July 22 2026

Crude Oil

WTI crude at $86.15/bbl — +30% year over year. Supply disruption scenario is not theoretical at current levels.

Food Cost Pressure

GPPI at 0.31 — neutral pressure. Dairy showing highest upstream cost signal at 5.3% YoY.

Diesel Forecast Range

Diesel forecast range: $4.861 (conservative) to $5.125 (supply disruption) over 13 weeks vs current $5.134. Base scenario shows modest relief — conditions may improve.

Refining & Supply Signals

3-2-1 Crack Spread — Refining Margin

$61.99/bbl Wide margins — refiners are running hard. Diesel supply is healthy for now.

Barrel Counting — Crude Stocks & SPR

Gasoline days supply is 0.4 days above the five-year seasonal average. Gasoline stocks near the seasonal average — neutral supply picture.

3-2-1 Crack Spread — Refining Margin History

Current: $61.99/bbl (+17.11 past 4 weeks). $27.98 above the 52-week average ($34.01/bbl). Wide margins — refiners are running hard. Diesel supply is healthy for now.

Regional Diesel Prices — This Week

EIA PADD district prices. Updated weekly. Select your region on the Trucker and Fleet tabs to use your actual price.

Region	Current Price	vs Last Week	vs National Avg	10-Truck Fleet Impact
Rocky Mountain	$4.935/gal	+0.335	-0.199	Cheapest ✅
Gulf Coast	$4.942/gal	+0.396	-0.192	+$23/wk vs Gulf Coast
Midwest	$4.988/gal	+0.329	-0.146	+$177/wk vs Gulf Coast
East Coast	$5.194/gal	+0.300	+0.060	+$863/wk vs Gulf Coast
West Coast	$5.877/gal	+0.327	+0.743	+$3,140/wk vs Gulf Coast

10-truck fleet impact based on 2,500 miles/week per truck at 7.5 MPG vs Gulf Coast (cheapest region).

Diesel Price — 52 Week History + 13 Week Forecast

Solid = actual | Dashed = base forecast | Shaded = scenario range

Grocery Price Pressure Index — 12 Month History

Rising GPPI leads food cost inflation by 4-8 weeks. Monthly series — latest reading July.

Fuel Price Forward Range — 13 Weeks

Three scenarios based on WTI crude trajectory. National average.

Conservative
WTI -15%

$4.861/gal

-0.273 vs current

Base Forecast
Current trajectory

$4.960/gal

-0.174 vs current

Supply Disruption
WTI +25%

$5.125/gal

-0.009 vs current

The Transmission Chain

When crude oil moves, your costs follow.

🛢️

WTI Crude Oil — $86.15/bbl (+30% YoY, as of Jul 22)
The root signal. Everything downstream follows crude.

↓ 1-2 weeks

⛽

Diesel Retail Price — $5.134/gal national | $4.935 (Rocky Mountain) to $5.877 (West Coast)
Regional spreads reflect local refinery capacity, taxes, and transport costs.

↓ 2-4 weeks

🚛

Trucking and Freight Costs
Carriers pass diesel costs into freight rates. Regional price differences directly affect route profitability.

↓ 4-8 weeks

🛒

Grocery and Food Prices — GPPI 0.31 (Neutral — July reading, monthly)
By the time this moves, operators with no early warning have already lost margin.

Decision Intelligence

The Cost of Flying Blind

Every week, operators across America make decisions that cost them money — not because they are bad at their jobs, but because they are flying blind on what is coming.

Transportation: A carrier sets a fuel surcharge in January and discovers in March it no longer covers diesel costs.

Fleet Operations: A fleet operator bids a lane at $2.50 per mile and watches margins disappear as fuel prices rise.

Restaurants: A supplier invoice arrives 15% higher than last month with no warning.

E-Commerce: A top-selling SKU goes out of stock during peak season because forecasting relied on last month's sales.

None of these outcomes are surprises. The signals are often visible weeks in advance. The challenge is turning thousands of market, pricing, and operational data points into clear business decisions. Jonny5 translates those signals into actionable foresight.

How it works

Jonny 5 pulls live data weekly. That data feeds into multivariate forecasting models built using Rob Hyndman's forecasting packages — the same statistical framework used in enterprise forecasting systems at publicly traded companies. The output is not a chart for a data scientist. It is a verdict for an operator.

Data sources

Source	What it provides	Frequency
FRED (Federal Reserve)	Retail fuel prices by region (PADD), CPI, PPI, consumer sentiment	Weekly / Monthly
EIA (US Energy Information Administration)	Crude oil prices, regional diesel by PADD district	Daily / Weekly
BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics)	Food at home CPI, category price indices	Monthly

Forecasting Methods

Jonny 5 uses three model types. For each series all three are fit and evaluated — the best performer on a holdout period is selected automatically.

Model	What it does	When it wins
ETS Error, Trend, Seasonality	Captures trend and seasonal patterns	Stable series with clear seasonality — retail fuel prices, food CPI
ARIMA Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average	Captures autocorrelation — last week price informs this week	Series with strong momentum or mean-reversion
ARIMAX ARIMA with external regressors	ARIMA plus macro signals as leading indicators	When external forces drive the series — WTI predicts diesel

The three scenarios

Scenario	Assumption	What it models
Conservative	WTI crude drops 15%	Demand weakness, supply recovery, de-escalation
Base	Current trajectory continues	No major macro shifts from current conditions
Supply Disruption	WTI crude rises 25%	Supply shock from geopolitical disruption or OPEC cut

Why this matters: The forecast range is not a guess. It is the output of a model evaluated on real held-out data before deployment. Wider uncertainty bands mean less predictable conditions — which is itself information worth acting on.

Data Dictionary — What is actually in the model

Jonny 5 pulls 20+ data series every week. Here is what each one is, where it comes from, and why it matters.

Fuel Series

Series	Source	What it measures	Why it matters
WTI Crude Oil	EIA via FRED	West Texas Intermediate spot price, daily	The upstream driver of all refined fuel prices. Moves first, everything else follows
Retail Diesel (National)	EIA via FRED	Weekly retail on-highway diesel, US average	Direct operating cost for every fleet and trucking operation
Retail Diesel (PADD 1-5)	EIA via FRED	Weekly retail diesel by region	Regional spreads can exceed $1.50/gal — the national average hides this
Brent Crude	EIA via FRED	North Sea benchmark, weekly	International crude benchmark. Diverges from WTI during geopolitical events
Natural Gas Spot	EIA via FRED	Henry Hub spot price	Input cost for fertilizer, food manufacturing, and cold chain logistics
Retail Gasoline	EIA via FRED	Weekly retail regular gasoline, US average	Consumer cost signal — affects sentiment and discretionary spending
Gas Days Supply	EIA via FRED	Weeks of gasoline supply on hand	Inventory signal. Below seasonal average = upward price pressure
Refinery Capacity	EIA via FRED	US refinery utilization rate	Below 90% tightens refined product supply. Diesel most sensitive

Grocery & Food Series

Series	Source	What it measures	Why it matters
Food at Home CPI	BLS via FRED	Consumer prices for groceries	The headline number restaurant and food operators feel in supplier invoices
Cereals & Bakery CPI	BLS via FRED	Category-level food price index	Grain and wheat cost pass-through — driven by energy and fertilizer costs
Meats, Poultry & Fish CPI	BLS via FRED	Category-level food price index	Energy-intensive cold chain. Sensitive to diesel and natural gas moves
Dairy CPI	BLS via FRED	Category-level food price index	High energy intensity — refrigeration, transport, feed costs
Fruits & Vegetables CPI	BLS via FRED	Category-level food price index	Highly seasonal and fuel-sensitive due to long-haul transport
PPI Food Manufacturing	BLS via FRED	Producer prices for food processors	Leads consumer food prices by 4-8 weeks
PPI Trucking	BLS via FRED	Producer prices for freight transport	Measures diesel cost pass-through into food distribution costs

Macro Series

Series	Source	What it measures	Why it matters
Consumer Sentiment	U of Michigan via FRED	Monthly consumer confidence index	Leading indicator of demand. Falling sentiment precedes demand weakness
Real PCE	BEA via FRED	Real personal consumption expenditures	Actual consumer spending. The broadest demand signal in the model
CPI All Items	BLS via FRED	Headline consumer inflation	Baseline inflation context for all price signals
Unemployment Rate	BLS via FRED	Monthly unemployment	Demand and wage pressure signal
Real Disposable Income	BEA via FRED	Inflation-adjusted household income	Strongest predictor of consumer goods demand in the e-commerce model

Track record

Company	What was built	Result
Intuit / QuickBooks	Growth forecasting models feeding Wall Street earnings guidance	Sub-3% error on a multi-billion dollar revenue base
Gogo Air	Route-level demand forecasting across 8 airlines	3-person team managed 13,000 daily flights
BevMo	Pricing intelligence for 200 locations	Manual Excel replaced with automated R systems
Independent trading	Quantitative models targeting pricing inefficiencies	10-20% annual ROI on multi-million dollar portfolios (sports betting/options trading)

This is the public version

The tools here use live macro data to demonstrate the methodology. If you want Jonny 5 running on your actual business data — your SKUs, your routes, your supplier contracts — that is a conversation worth having.

Get in touch →

Ask Jonny 5 — Predictive Business Intelligence